Can ‘Diablo 4’ Outsell ‘Hogwarts Legacy’?

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  I am very interested in a very specific race happening this year. While there are lots of big releases happening in 2023 following a series of 2021-2022 delays, you will find caveats to many of them.

  Games like Redfall and Starfield are Xbox exclusives and won't “sell” within the traditional sense because of launching on Game Pass. Tears from the Kingdom is going to be massive but is just on Switch. Same for Final Fantasy XVI and potentially Spider-Man 2, only on PlayStation.

  However, you will find two, possibly three exceptions for this. We don’t know precisely what Call of Duty is doing this season. Some sort of $70 offer, possibly a completely new game, however, it seems like it might be something tied straight to MW2. Therefore I wonder whether it will sell as monstrously as a normal installment would.

  That leaves two games I’m watching, buy Diablo 4 Gold and Hogwarts Legacy, and I am wondering if they will outsell other, as both of them are multiplatform and never exclusive to anyone's system. And bigger than other 3rd party games could be, for example, Jedi Survivor (even when that’s great).

  

  Hogwarts Legacy sold 12 million copies in the first two weeks, blockbuster numbers at a pace that has rarely been matched within the industry, and rarely for a completely new IP (Cyberpunk 2077 might be the closest comparison). Those would be the last numbers we now have from the series at this time, and also the game continues to release on more platforms like last-gen consoles and also the Switch, still in the future.

  Diablo 3 had become the fastest-selling PC game ever at launch, racking up 3.5 million sales in twenty-four hours. It hit 6.3 million sales in its first week. By the end of 2012, it sold a lot more than 12 million copies, which may have been about six and a half months after launch. Eventually, Blizzard would reveal it had sold 30 million copies by August 2015, although it seems likely it included sales from the Reaper of Souls expansion too.

  I understand how this looks initially. 12 million sales in 2 weeks versus 12 million sales in 6.5 months. And I probably expect Hogwarts Legacy to maneuver 20 million copies in the first year, much like Elden Ring.

  However, I think you will find additional factors to think about:

  Diablo 3 was launched in 2012, 11 years back, and also the overall gaming industry has expanded dramatically since that time, hence why you’re seeing sky-high totals for games that maybe wouldn’t reach those levels about ten years ago.

  Diablo 4 has already established two, happening three promising betas which have only amplified interest within the game. It has built on those initial 30 million sales in the last decade to ensure that likely a lot more people are going to be interested in D4 at launch than D3, which obviously already set records itself.

  Diablo 4 also appears like it has got the potential to have longer legs than Hogwarts Legacy and all sorts of its upfront sales. Unlike Hogwarts Legacy, which most players just beat and dropped, Diablo 4 will exist like a live game in perpetuity, and likewise, to seasons, paid expansions are also confirmed. That means a greater volume of sales for extended, as new submissions are consistently added.

  It’s a steep climb, but when any game that isn’t a brand new Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto can perform it, I think it’s Diablo 4 buy gold, but we’ll need to wait and find out.